Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb960…6a9a other 987 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%984W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$14
sports 44% +$2
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 178 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 818 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 986 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses984 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)986 / 987
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 2 Winner: Liu vs Tsujioka Liu 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Colby vs. Chan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ziegann vs. Seifert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sam Liccardo advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Michael Woud: 4+ saves Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Jackson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Joaquín Piquerez: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Aiman Yahya: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rodri: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Lucas Bergvall: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Barbashev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ismaël Gharbi: 2+ assists Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Aymen Dahmen: 3+ saves Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kento Shiogai: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
CD Limache leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 3 - 2 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Fallon attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Zeki Çelik: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ché Adams: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Lim vs. Pucar: Total Games O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Li vs Hontama Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Gio Reyna: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 2 Winner: Liu vs Tsujioka BUY Liu 100¢ $4 19m
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 50m
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 1h
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Colby vs. Chan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Ziegann vs. Seifert: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 10h
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 14h
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 14h
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will Sam Liccardo advance from the CA-16 primary election? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 100¢ $5 24h
Michael Woud: 4+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Alex Jackson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 25h
Aiman Yahya: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Joaquín Piquerez: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Rodri: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Lucas Bergvall: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Ismaël Gharbi: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $4 47h
Aymen Dahmen: 3+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will Ivan Barbashev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Kento Shiogai: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.98 (match) · 2288 history records