Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb95d…0219 crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%145W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$31
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.0% -8.7% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 89 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 147 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -8.9%
all 147 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses145 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage48d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $74 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $73 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $72 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records