Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb95d…8ede other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 38% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.1%
all 31 -1.4% -10.7% 52% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $61 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $71 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $36 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $6 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $3 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $2 $0 -13%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 17 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 17 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $45 23d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $45 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records