Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb95b…6cdd world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$17
other 33% $0
sports 10% +$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 38 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 8% -9.0%
all 45 +2.3% -7.4% 49% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 9% -9.0%
10% -16.3% 7% -17.7%
15% -24.4% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage532d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $132 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $63 −$3 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $221 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $166 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $117 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $50 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $34 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $58 −$3 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $61 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $46 +$21 +45%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $87 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $474 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $261 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $282 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? Mar 05 $4 +$4 +127%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $60 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $60 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $53 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $7 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $2 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $28 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $28 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $57 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $58 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.31 · official $45.31 (match) · 258 history records