Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb95b…3d49 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$21
world 31% −$4
politics 14% $0
tech 4% −$2
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 25% -12.3%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 17% -11.7%
all 22 +35.1% +22.2% 50% 9% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.2% 9% -7.0%
10% +10.5% 5% -15.9%
15% -0.2% 5% -24.0%
20% -10.0% 5% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage451d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $44 −$4 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $3 +$20 +773%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 04 $27 −$2 -7%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $19 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $19 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 28h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $6 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $44 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $40 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $40 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 30d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 184d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 368d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 385d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $2 406d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 420d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 440d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 441d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.75 · official $39.77 (match) · 66 history records