Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B9
0xb959…859c
other · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 14 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 3 Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% $0
other 30% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $11 43m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $11 45m
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $15 1h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $15 1h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $13 1h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3h
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 SELL No 75¢ $11 3h
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 BUY No 85¢ $13 3h
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $20 8h
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $20 8h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 67¢ $17 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 67¢ $17 12h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December SELL Yes 13¢ $6 14h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December BUY Yes 12¢ $4 14h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $13 15h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $4 15h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $18 15h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $8 15h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $8 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 35¢ $22 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 35¢ $7 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 35¢ $5 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 35¢ $10 25h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr SELL No 86¢ $17 26h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY No 86¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.27 (match) · 80 history records