trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | Down | 38¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | Up | 36¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | Down | 61¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 19 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? | May 13 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? | May 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET | May 11 | $5 | +$1 | +29% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | May 09 | $8 | −$7 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | May 09 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | May 09 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | May 09 | $5 | +$1 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | May 09 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | May 09 | $5 | +$5 | +99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | May 09 | $25 | +$6 | +23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | May 09 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | May 09 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | May 09 | $5 | +$3 | +58% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$2 | +34% |
| FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score | May 06 | $8 | +$2 | +30% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$2 | +38% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$4 | +84% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | May 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | May 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $5 | +$5 | +97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 100% | 100% | +3.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -42.8% | -48.3% | 50% | 50% | -68.5% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -20.4% | -28.0% | 52% | 48% | -34.7% |
| all | 23 | -20.4% | -28.0% | 52% | 48% | -34.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.0% | 48% | -34.7% |
| 10% | -34.9% | 39% | -40.9% |
| 15% | -41.2% | 22% | -46.6% |
| 20% | -46.9% | 17% | -51.9% |