Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb954…d144 other 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 131d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% -10.5%
≤30d 6 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% -10.5%
≤90d 6 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% -10.5%
all 10 +18.5% +7.2% 60% 60% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 60% -17.3%
10% -3.1% 50% -25.2%
15% -12.4% 50% -32.4%
20% -21.0% 50% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage131d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$13 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $49 −$46 -94%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $20 +$30 +148%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $11 +$9 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 6d
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 123d
Will AZ win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 123d
Will AZ win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 126d
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-02-11? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 126d
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 128d
Will PSV win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 129d
Will PSV win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records