Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb94e…7bb4 crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$419 (+5%) realized +$420 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate74%142W / 49L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$1
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$4
crypto 28% +$418
sports 23% −$73
other 3% +$5
weather 1% −$13
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +2.5% -7.2% 77% 44% -8.8%
≤30d 162 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 43% -7.9%
≤90d 191 +0.1% -9.4% 74% 42% -5.4%
all 191 +0.1% -9.4% 74% 42% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% -5.4%
10% -18.1% 28% -14.5%
15% -26.0% 19% -22.7%
20% -33.2% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized+$420
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses142 / 49
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions12
Markets (closed)191 / 203
History coverage70d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $651 $651 +$0 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Egypt 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 89¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$14 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $743 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $55 +$11 +21%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.21 · official $726.21 (match) · 616 history records