Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb94b…090c other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$12
politics 27% −$8
sports 12% −$18
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -1.7% -11.1% 8% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage132d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $167 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $312 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $321 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $169 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $400 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 30h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $144 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 27d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 28d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 34d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 34d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 37d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $144 45d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $144 46d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 46d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 47d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 47d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 47d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $140 47d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $140 48d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 48d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 48d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $163 48d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $163 49d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $146 49d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $146 49d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $191 50d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $191 50d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 50d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records