Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb94b…bd62 politics 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,173 (-1%) realized −$2,175 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%29W / 159L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,275per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$38
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$245
politics 38% −$111
sports 8% −$1,848
economics 4% −$9
culture 4% −$11
world 2% +$10
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 59 -2.9% -12.1% 10% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 127 -2.2% -11.5% 5% 3% -10.7%
all 188 -1.5% -10.9% 15% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 9% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 8% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,960) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$2,175
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses29 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,275
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $167 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,987 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5,963 −$8 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,108 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $2,761 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,714 −$5 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,415 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,731 −$3 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $64 +$20 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $74 +$72 +97%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,158 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $572 −$1 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $179 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,837 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,778 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $315 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $281 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,075 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,283 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $271 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $304 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $424 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $425 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $567 7h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $568 8h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,328 26h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,330 28h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 30h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 32h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,051 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,172 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $969 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,326 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,279 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,281 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $965 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $966 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $967 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $969 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $861 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $862 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.90 · official $168.90 (match) · 668 history records