Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb94a…d680 weather 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,655 (+5%) realized +$11,865 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate69%331W / 150L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day93.8pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$225
weather 41% +$1,849
other 2% −$1,937
world 0% −$24
tech 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 21% -12.6%
≤30d 418 -0.9% -10.4% 67% 19% -9.9%
≤90d 481 -0.5% -10.0% 69% 18% -9.2%
all 481 -0.5% -10.0% 69% 18% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 18% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 11% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 7% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$80 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$11,865
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses331 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions5
Markets (closed)481 / 487
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$516
Trades / day93.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $75 $72 −$2 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $261 $63 −$197 (-76%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 −$196 -70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $157 −$1 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $274 −$270 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,845 +$153 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $147 −$137 -93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $274 −$117 -43%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $239 −$235 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $794 +$1,242 +156%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $612 +$67 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $635 −$291 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $141 −$2 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $814 −$755 -93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $912 −$587 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $155 −$87 -56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $980 +$19 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $108 −$30 -28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 −$26 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,010 +$88 +9%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $36 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $658 +$20 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $293 +$88 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,535 +$96 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,347 +$37 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $382 +$17 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $62 +$36 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $232 +$10 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $90 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $286 +$13 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$24 -83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $992 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,648 +$50 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $402 +$93 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $565 +$34 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,181 +$26 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,798 +$100 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,100 +$21 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,506 −$8 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$32 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,413 −$42 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $934 +$165 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $87 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 17¢ $83 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 53¢ $157 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $102 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $157 10h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 10h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 10h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $279 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $274 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,998 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,845 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 3¢ $2 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 3¢ $8 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 3¢ $0 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $38 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $9 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $4 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $96 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $157 26h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 91¢ $53 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 91¢ $38 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.68 · official $345.68 (match) · 3500 history records