Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb944…c76a weather 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%118W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$12
sports 0% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 97 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.6%
all 141 -2.8% -12.0% 84% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -9.4%
10% -20.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses118 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage116d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 16? May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 15? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 43°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 11? May 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 10? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on May 9? May 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 8? May 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 7? May 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 6? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on May 5? May 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on May 4? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $33 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $32 26d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $26 29d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 276 history records