Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb942…7d0c other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$14
politics 18% −$11
other 5% −$7
sports 2% −$16
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 49 -2.5% -11.7% 31% 18% -10.6%
all 63 -3.6% -12.8% 29% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 14% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 14% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 14% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage595d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $33 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $294 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$6 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $8 +$4 +46%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $11 +$7 +59%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 31 $29 +$15 +52%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $23 +$14 +59%
Wild vs. Lightning Mar 25 $38 +$25 +64%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5) Mar 24 $22 +$17 +78%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 19h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $9 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 268 history records