Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb93e…195e other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$182 (+9%) realized +$221 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$55
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$35
world 24% +$143
finance 24% +$8
other 11% −$3
sports 8% +$71
culture 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 25% +73.5%
≤30d 12 +8.2% -2.1% 58% 42% +40.2%
≤90d 25 +1.4% -8.3% 48% 40% +16.4%
all 31 +21.8% +10.2% 52% 42% +39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 42% +39.4%
10% -0.3% 35% +26.1%
15% -10.0% 35% +13.9%
20% -18.8% 23% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,569
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)31 / 51
History coverage147d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $238 $231 −$7 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 87¢ 90¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 83¢ 83¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $158 $159 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $106 $98 −$8 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $87 $93 +$6 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $80 $72 −$7 (-9%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 19¢ 18¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 62¢ 62¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 54¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 +$71 +365%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $2 +$4 +195%
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride end in a draw? May 13 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$28 +272%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $21 −$4 -22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 26 $10 −$5 -49%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $20 +$9 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 29 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Germany end in a draw? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 01 $5 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 +$54 +270%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $20 +$91 +454%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY No 84¢ $101 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $72 55m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 56m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 18¢ $40 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $201 1h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 1h
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 1h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 62¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 54¢ $11 6h
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $62 2d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,568.85 · official $1,568.85 (match) · 164 history records