Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb93b…22c4 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
world 39% +$5
politics 12% +$1
finance 3% $0
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 15% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +135.3% +112.9% 40% 20% -8.6%
≤90d 25 +80.6% +63.4% 32% 12% -9.3%
all 32 +55.4% +40.6% 34% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.6% 9% -9.9%
10% +27.2% 6% -18.5%
15% +14.9% 3% -26.4%
20% +3.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +127% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage525d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$4 +12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $28 +$4 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $9 −$1 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $14 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $124 +$2 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $287 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $154 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Between 400-449 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 27 $2 −$1 -38%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a TD AND Quinn Ewers throws one or more INT? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $28 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 27h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $55 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $55 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records