Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb938…47e6 crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$460 (+4%) realized +$460 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%88W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$942
7 days−$942
14 days−$1,001
30 days−$1,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,021
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -96.3% -96.6% 0% 0% -91.8%
≤30d 75 -16.3% -24.3% 40% 39% -21.9%
≤90d 85 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 40% -22.2%
all 188 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 45% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 45% -17.7%
10% -27.1% 41% -25.5%
15% -34.2% 37% -32.7%
20% -40.6% 31% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$59 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses88 / 100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage127d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $227 −$215 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $415 −$322 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $177 −$170 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $155 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $63 +$80 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $198 −$187 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$247 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $28 +$47 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $208 +$144 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $105 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $273 +$170 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $206 +$131 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $62 +$82 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $105 +$153 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $155 +$80 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $1,092 −$158 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $208 +$60 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $149 −$143 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $125 −$118 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $168 +$206 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $116 +$207 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $73 +$45 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $206 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $264 −$258 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $37 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $189 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $415 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $37 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $75 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $143 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $18 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $143 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $353 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records