Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb937…f2c5 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,205 (-8%) realized −$1,200 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,184
other 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.6% -21.8% 43% 43% -74.3%
≤30d 7 -13.6% -21.8% 43% 43% -74.3%
≤90d 7 -13.6% -21.8% 43% 43% -74.3%
all 116 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 48% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 48% -16.6%
10% -13.1% 44% -24.6%
15% -21.5% 32% -31.8%
20% -29.2% 27% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$72 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,200
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)116 / 120
History coverage238d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 62¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 75¢ 76¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO? Yes 52¢ 28¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-46%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $6 +$6 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card Feb 08 $38 +$12 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $57 +$43 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 08 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $41 +$59 +144%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $20 −$8 -38%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Devils vs. Jets Jan 12 $27 +$23 +85%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $18 −$14 -75%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) Jan 11 $61 −$61 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 01 $117 −$115 -98%
Arizona State vs. Duke Dec 31 $150 +$85 +57%
Spread: Vanderbilt (-5.5) Dec 31 $27 +$23 +85%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $20 +$10 +51%
Kings vs. Avalanche Dec 30 $20 +$13 +64%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $60 +$69 +115%
Rams vs. Falcons Dec 30 $20 −$4 -22%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $20 −$12 -59%
Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Dec 29 $57 +$43 +75%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Dec 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 23 $225 −$225 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $20 −$13 -65%
Pacers vs. Celtics Dec 23 $50 +$53 +106%
Rockets vs. Kings Dec 22 $1,950 −$1,624 -83%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. UTEP Miners Dec 22 $20 −$7 -33%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $399 +$18 +5%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Dec 22 $48 −$28 -58%
Warriors vs. Suns Dec 19 $131 −$19 -15%
Pistons vs. Mavericks Dec 19 $60 −$38 -63%
Heat vs. Nets Dec 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Dec 18 $51 +$49 +96%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $20 −$7 -36%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Dec 18 $20 −$19 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $200 +$52 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $225 +$101 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $257 +$100 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $285 +$100 +35%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Dec 13 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 09 $113 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 12m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 87¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $33 2h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 75¢ $31 2h
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 24¢ $5 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $17 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 77¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 5d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 5d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $30 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card BUY Horiguchi 76¢ $38 132d
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main BUY Almeida 62¢ $31 133d
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M BUY Bautista 57¢ $57 133d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 49¢ $20 153d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Texans 30¢ $30 153d
Texans vs. Steelers SELL Steelers 30¢ $12 158d
76ers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors $5 158d
Texans vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 48¢ $20 158d
Chargers vs. Patriots SELL Chargers $4 159d
Bills vs. Jaguars BUY Jaguars 52¢ $20 160d
Devils vs. Jets BUY Jets 54¢ $27 160d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Chargers 36¢ $18 160d
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) BUY Chargers 61¢ $61 160d
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) BUY Krylov 41¢ $41 160d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 67¢ $50 160d
Alabama vs. Indiana SELL Alabama $1 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.62 · official $75.62 (match) · 358 history records