Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B9 0xb932…d2de other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,297 (+25%) realized +$3,110 · open +$187

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate83%10W / 2L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$952per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$270

7 days+$532

14 days+$532

30 days+$532

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-0.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+6.0%	-4.1%	82%	36%	-2.6%
≤30d	11	+6.0%	-4.1%	82%	36%	-2.6%
≤90d	11	+6.0%	-4.1%	82%	36%	-2.6%
all	12	+10.1%	-0.4%	83%	42%	+15.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.4%	42%	+15.2%
10%	-9.9%	17%	+4.2%
15%	-18.6%	8%	-5.9%
20%	-26.6%	8%	-15.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$348 vs −$104 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×16.76 per $1 lost it wins $16.76

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage

Net worth$1,522

Realized+$3,110

Unrealized+$187

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses10 / 2

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage591d

Avg bet$952

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$810	$999	+$189 (+23%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$525	$522	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?	Jun 19	$435	+$65	+15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$466	+$34	+7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$828	−$183	-22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,079	+$91	+8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$773	+$212	+27%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?	Jun 18	$336	+$33	+10%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$456	+$43	+10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$121	−$25	-20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$436	+$48	+11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1,056	+$143	+14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$996	+$71	+7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$5,000	+$2,743	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	81¢	$815	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$527	18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	93¢	$466	18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL No	54¢	$320	19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL No	55¢	$326	19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY No	69¢	$828	20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	92¢	$156	22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	92¢	$922	22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL No	94¢	$235	24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$202	25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$3	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$17	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$162	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$27	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	78¢	$79	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$3	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$66	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$33	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$10	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$3	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$8	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$3	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$66	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$23	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$16	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$33	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$13	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$3	26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	SELL No	100¢	$499	41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY No	91¢	$456	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,521.64 · official $1,521.64 (match) · 81 history records