Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb931…33ef other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,006 (-1%) realized −$2,006 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%39W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,115per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$71
other 39% −$87
sports 14% −$1,795
culture 5% −$33
crypto 2% +$4
world 1% −$43
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -15.3% -23.4% 6% 0% -12.0%
all 135 +2.2% -7.5% 29% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -10.7%
10% -16.4% 11% -19.3%
15% -24.5% 10% -27.1%
20% -31.9% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,574) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$2,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses39 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,105 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $840 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,137 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,680 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,063 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $485 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $738 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,931 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,352 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,630 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $444 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,005 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,886 −$3 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $3,064 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,382 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4,537 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,105 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $423 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $423 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $839 11d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $840 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,459 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,461 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,572 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,574 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,456 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,459 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,520 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,523 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,516 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,518 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,402 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,404 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,458 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,461 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,239 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,241 20d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 21d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,669 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.39 · official $218.39 (match) · 400 history records