Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb92c…3088 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 28% +$2
crypto 9% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 43 +0.3% -9.2% 42% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $34 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $34 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $30 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $30 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $34 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $31 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $31.82 (match) · 123 history records