Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb92b…ff81 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 31% −$11
sports 11% +$89
crypto 6% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 116 +2.6% -7.2% 10% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×18.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage134d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $234 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $216 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $359 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $491 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 15h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 27h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $26 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $188 27d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $188 28d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $223 28d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $223 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $219 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $208 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $194 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $194 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.95 · official $65.95 (match) · 342 history records