Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb92a…299a weather 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$82 (+1%) realized +$928 · open −$846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%40W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day181.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$2,483
other 8% −$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 +27.8% +15.6% 10% 10% -88.7%
≤30d 317 +63.1% +47.5% 13% 13% -89.9%
≤90d 317 +63.1% +47.5% 13% 13% -89.9%
all 317 +63.1% +47.5% 13% 13% -89.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.5% 13% -89.9%
10% ← realistic here +33.4% 12% -90.8%
15% +20.5% 12% -91.7%
20% +8.7% 12% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late +224% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$928
Unrealized−$846
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses40 / 277
Open positions211
Markets (closed)317 / 148
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day181.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 211 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in June? Yes 14¢ 59¢ $8 $32 +$25 (+313%)
Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in June? Yes 14¢ 48¢ $9 $29 +$20 (+236%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $23 +$17 (+318%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 86¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+851%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 40¢ $4 $20 +$15 (+346%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $4 $19 +$14 (+323%)
Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in June? Yes 14¢ 31¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+119%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 40¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+334%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 52¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+466%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $4 $17 +$12 (+279%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 27¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+197%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+213%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+290%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $2 $8 +$5 (+213%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+103%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 35¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+285%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 25 $0 −$4 -1085%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 22? Jun 25 $1 −$3 -256%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 26? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 22? Jun 25 $2 −$5 -210%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Jun 25 $3 −$5 -177%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Jun 25 $1 −$3 -229%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 25 $4 −$5 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4? Jun 25 $1 −$5 -733%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 +$8 +2155%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 10? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May Jun 25 $21 −$29 -140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 14? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 21? Jun 25 $0 −$2 -414%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 26? Jun 25 $3 −$5 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 31? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +300%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 29? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 14 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 25 $2 −$4 -162%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 31? Jun 25 $4 −$5 -128%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 23? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 23? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 25 $0 −$4 -979%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11? Jun 25 $4 −$5 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 2? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on May 2 Jun 25 $15 −$30 -194%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 22? Jun 25 $2 −$5 -278%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 31? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 25 $1 +$9 +1026%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 25 $1 −$4 -301%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 104°F or higher on May 31? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 25 $1 −$4 -368%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 25 $2 −$4 -241%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 8? Jun 25 $3 −$5 -177%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 28? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 26? Jun 25 $2 −$4 -211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 29m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL Yes 10¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 26? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 26? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 25? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 25? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.31 · official $494.05 · 3500 history records