Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb927…dd94 sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-10%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$26
14 days−$32
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$32
other 20% −$52
tech 5% +$3
finance 2% +$3
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.9% -14.8% 25% 25% -27.5%
≤30d 43 +39.5% +26.2% 35% 35% -18.4%
≤90d 135 +15.9% +4.9% 46% 41% -18.8%
all 138 +15.5% +4.5% 46% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 41% -18.7%
10% -5.5% 33% -26.5%
15% -14.6% 27% -33.6%
20% -23.0% 20% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 75
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage98d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$3 +212%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12 −$8 -70%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$16 +194%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14 +$4 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -44%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $22 −$6 -29%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $13 +$6 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $6 −$1 -15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $3 −$2 -81%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 02 $8 $0 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $4 +$6 +140%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $2 −$1 -43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $4 +$3 +83%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $9 −$1 -12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $1 +$1 +78%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $1 +$3 +250%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $0 +$5 +1941%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $4 +$1 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $3 +$2 +47%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $2 $0 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $6 $0 -8%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $5 −$3 -59%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $3 $0 +7%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $3 $0 +18%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $7 +$2 +33%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $4 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 59m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $5 18h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 23¢ $1 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $2 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 7¢ $1 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 24¢ $1 20h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $2 20h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 40¢ $2 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $2 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $0 37h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $2 37h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $0 37h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $2 40h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 1¢ $0 41h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 2¢ $1 41h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 33¢ $3 41h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 23¢ $6 41h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $5 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 13¢ $0 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 13¢ $4 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 13¢ $2 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 28¢ $11 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $24 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 49¢ $2 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 40¢ $4 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 22¢ $1 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $1 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 40¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 414 history records