Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb922…1d3e sports 314 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$277 (+3%) realized +$277 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%173W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days−$74
14 days−$13
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$436
crypto 24% −$380
other 7% −$37
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 56% -14.5%
≤30d 187 +11.0% +0.4% 56% 51% -7.3%
≤90d 313 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 52% -9.1%
all 313 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 52% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 52% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 45% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 37% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses173 / 140
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage42d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $31 +$17 +57%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $39 +$21 +53%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 25 $87 −$63 -72%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $46 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$7 +35%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $60 −$60 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $47 +$13 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 25 $35 +$12 +35%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Isaac Becroft Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $50 +$25 +50%
Wilson Isidor: 2+ shots Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $162 +$19 +12%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $20 +$22 +108%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 23 $70 +$20 +28%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 +$21 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$5 +102%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 20 $50 +$27 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6 −$1 -18%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $39 −$5 -13%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$5 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$5 +106%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Eikeri/Gleason vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 19 $51 +$28 +56%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Han Shi Jun 19 $73 +$23 +32%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $12 +$10 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $21 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 +$11 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $111 +$8 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $123 +$33 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $206 −$10 -5%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $76 +$15 +20%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Bekeni vs Branko Djuric Jun 18 $149 +$26 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $27 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $48 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $31 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $60 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $39 2h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild SELL Luis Felipe Miguel 10¢ $24 2h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Luis Felipe Miguel 10¢ $5 4h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Luis Felipe Miguel 10¢ $4 5h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Luis Felipe Miguel 14¢ $5 5h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Luis Felipe Miguel 58¢ $73 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 67¢ $53 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 56¢ $46 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui $5 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 16¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $19 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 75¢ $60 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 97¢ $60 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 75¢ $47 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn SELL Mackenzie McDonald 97¢ $48 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Mackenzie McDonald 71¢ $35 12h
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Isaac Becroft BUY Isaac Becroft 77¢ $40 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 25h
Wilson Isidor: 2+ shots BUY Yes 43¢ $51 26h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 76¢ $81 32h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $162 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.71 · official $26.71 (match) · 630 history records