Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb920…0ee7 other 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,026 (-10%) realized −$1,026 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%93W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$653
sports 39% −$147
world 6% −$186
weather 5% −$83
culture 2% +$43
crypto 1% −$12
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.3% -40.5% 38% 38% -23.4%
≤30d 17 -25.4% -32.5% 41% 41% -9.8%
≤90d 99 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 36% -25.7%
all 216 +12.4% +1.7% 43% 29% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 29% -19.1%
10% -8.1% 24% -26.8%
15% -17.0% 19% -33.9%
20% -25.1% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,026
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses93 / 123
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage172d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 14 $31 +$8 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $59 +$41 +70%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 30 $31 +$29 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $72 −$40 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Little Joe escape again? May 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $18 +$9 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 19 $11 +$2 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $47 −$30 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Apr 14 $17 −$14 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 13 $31 −$20 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? Apr 13 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 11? Apr 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Apr 12 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11? Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 12? Apr 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13? Apr 11 $0 $0 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11? Apr 11 $21 +$29 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Apr 10 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 11? Apr 10 $3 −$2 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11? Apr 09 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7? Apr 06 $13 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7? Apr 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6? Apr 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6? Apr 06 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6? Apr 06 $58 −$38 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6? Apr 05 $23 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 6? Apr 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 5? Apr 05 $92 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5? Apr 05 $39 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 5? Apr 05 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 5? Apr 05 $6 −$4 -65%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $17 +$11 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 4? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4? Apr 04 $6 +$4 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $31 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 17d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 26d
Will Little Joe escape again? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 974 history records