Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb91e…549c sports 1294 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%671W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$23
other 23% +$2
crypto 13% −$3
politics 4% −$7
weather 3% +$21
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +3.3% -6.5% 64% 42% -5.7%
≤30d 921 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 37% -11.0%
≤90d 1203 -2.1% -11.5% 56% 38% -10.8%
all 1203 -2.1% -11.5% 56% 38% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 38% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 18% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 15% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses671 / 532
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions91
Markets (closed)1203 / 1294
History coverage59d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 1203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 27¢ 96¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+249%)
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki Yuki Mochizuki 20¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+202%)
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta Duckhee Lee 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+162%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 10¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+124%)
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Robert Guna 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Under 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 71¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 38¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 50¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 78¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $1 +$3 +291%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Koki Matsuda Jun 17 $1 +$2 +197%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
ITF Irvine: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 38¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 49¢ $1 1h
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta BUY Duckhee Lee 38¢ $1 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 45¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Jiangxue Han 25¢ $1 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 43¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Jiangxue Han 20¢ $1 1h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu BUY Robert Guna 47¢ $1 1h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Zoe Kaegi 7¢ $1 2h
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki BUY Yuki Mochizuki 20¢ $1 2h
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels BUY Niklas Waldner 14¢ $1 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 38¢ $1 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ran Yang 9¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 48¢ $1 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1 3h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 35¢ $1 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 86¢ $1 3h
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova BUY Nao Nishino 21¢ $1 4h
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa BUY Mana Kawamura 38¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $1 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Yuyao Li 11¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 83¢ $1 4h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 90¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $1 5h
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani BUY Nagi Hanatani 7¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.80 · official $92.80 (match) · 2502 history records