Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B9
0xb918…2406
weather · 67 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$289 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$308 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses47 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 67
History coverage66d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$291
14 days−$291
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? No 21¢ 1¢ $49 $2 −$47 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18? No 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? No 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 17? No 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? No 32¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 17? No 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 75¢ 0¢ $290 $0 −$290 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 18? No 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? No 78¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 18? No 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $83 +$60 +72%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$20 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $232 +$33 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $101 +$17 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $294 −$290 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $343 +$79 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$18 +58%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 −$69 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $200 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$19 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $152 +$55 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $324 −$320 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17 Apr 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Apr 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16? Apr 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on April 16? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 18? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$354
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 41¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 22¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $96 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $143 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $31 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $28 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $30 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $101 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $422 35h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $30 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $60 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $30 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $20 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $6 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -24.3% -31.5% 62% 43% -19.0%
≤30d 37 -24.3% -31.5% 62% 43% -19.0%
≤90d 75 -18.7% -26.5% 63% 51% -18.9%
all 75 -18.7% -26.5% 63% 51% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 51% -18.9%
10% -33.5% 35% -26.7%
15% -39.9% 15% -33.8%
20% -45.8% 4% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 196 history records