Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B9 0xb916…f248 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$1,353 (+168%) realized +$1,264 · open +$89

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +280% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +230% what you keep after slip

Net edge+230%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$268per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+243.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+279.5%	+243.3%	100%	100%	+243.3%
≤30d	1	+279.5%	+243.3%	100%	100%	+243.3%
≤90d	1	+279.5%	+243.3%	100%	100%	+243.3%
all	1	+279.5%	+243.3%	100%	100%	+243.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+243.3%	100%	+243.3%
10%	+210.5%	100%	+210.5%
15%	+180.5%	100%	+180.5%
20%	+153.0%	100%	+153.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +280% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +279% · $-wt +280% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,342 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$289

Realized+$1,264

Unrealized+$89

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$268

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	44¢	64¢	$200	$289	+$89 (+44%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$480	+$1,342	+280%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	30¢	$61	35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	55¢	$142	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	50¢	$122	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,823	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$133	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	24¢	$41	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	33¢	$204	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.64 · official $408.64 · 8 history records