Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb914…8a49 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$383 (+5%) realized +$383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 41L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$178
14 days+$139
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$442
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +18.9% +7.6% 56% 39% +4.8%
≤30d 31 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 35% -10.5%
≤90d 65 -1.0% -10.5% 58% 37% -3.6%
all 97 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 38% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 38% -3.6%
10% -20.9% 27% -12.8%
15% -28.6% 19% -21.3%
20% -35.6% 9% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage97d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $204 +$124 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$30 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $206 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $313 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $77 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $28 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $63 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $35 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $22 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $58 +$27 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $72 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 01 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $133 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $113 −$99 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 03 $999 +$270 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 03 $22 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 03 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 03 $37 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 02 $130 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 02 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 01 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 28 $96 −$79 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 28 $120 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 28 $99 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 25 $61 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 25 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 25 $220 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 25 $22 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 25 $200 −$13 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $27 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $328 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $33 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $103 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records