Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb911…7c31 sports 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,842 (-12%) realized −$7,654 · open −$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%33W / 170L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$930est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,193
30 days−$4,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$8,060
other 40% +$3,775
crypto 12% −$5,485
politics 0% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 -83.8% -85.3% 4% 4% -89.6%
≤90d 202 -34.9% -41.1% 16% 16% -26.7%
all 203 -32.2% -38.7% 16% 16% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 16% -24.3%
10% -44.5% 16% -31.5%
15% -49.9% 16% -38.1%
20% -54.8% 16% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,108 vs −$273 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized−$7,654
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses33 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$930
Open positions3
Markets (closed)203 / 215
History coverage117d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $338 $348 +$11 (+3%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 11¢ 9¢ $250 $205 −$45 (-18%)
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals Yes 11¢ 4¢ $264 $111 −$153 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $656 −$651 -99%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $314 −$313 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $85 −$79 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $249 −$236 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $443 −$432 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $94 −$92 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $213 −$208 -97%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 06 $254 +$488 +192%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $194 −$189 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $166 −$162 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $96 −$93 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $169 −$165 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $193 −$189 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $440 −$430 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 05 $515 −$502 -98%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 05 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Work Jun 05 $11 −$11 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $409 −$400 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $213 −$200 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $266 −$250 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $183 −$181 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $96 −$94 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $58 −$54 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $1,036 +$249 +24%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 28 $938 −$150 -16%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $300 −$292 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $349 −$341 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $145 −$142 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $387 −$378 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $308 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $206 −$200 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $115 −$112 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $155 +$548 +354%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi May 28 $282 −$275 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $530 −$518 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $749 +$833 +111%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 27 $244 −$238 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova May 27 $257 −$250 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $298 −$290 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $349 −$340 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 27 $395 −$386 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $426 −$415 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Kokkinakis vs Busta May 27 $72 −$70 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $582 −$570 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 27 $455 +$472 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $66 21m
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Bukayo Saka: 1+ ass BUY 11¢ $200 22m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Will Ghan BUY 4¢ $222 36m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Cor BUY 9¢ $144 48m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $257 1h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals AND Ante Budimir: 1+ goals AND Andrej Kramarić: 1 BUY 1¢ $98 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $294 1h
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $205 1h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Bukayo Saka: 1+ ass BUY 13¢ $145 1h
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 To BUY 3¢ $81 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 13¢ $257 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. BUY 7¢ $154 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY 8¢ $137 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 4¢ $119 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.20 · official $1,451.62 · 943 history records