Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb90d…5617 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$115 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%43W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$686
7 days−$600
14 days−$374
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$525
crypto 31% −$597
other 3% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 50% -19.3%
≤30d 67 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 57% -10.4%
≤90d 68 -5.2% -14.2% 63% 56% -10.7%
all 68 -5.2% -14.2% 63% 56% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 56% -10.7%
10% -22.4% 44% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 29% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 26% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$104 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage30d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 66¢ 40¢ $300 $183 −$117 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$40 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$8 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$42 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $191 −$182 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$205 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$93 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$13 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$166 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$34 +17%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $301 +$26 +9%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $301 +$44 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$175 -87%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $203 +$268 +132%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $301 +$19 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$29 +58%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$52 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$17 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$201 +99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $25 +$14 +54%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$35 +86%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$110 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $203 +$221 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$87 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $201 +$22 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $302 +$60 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $303 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $66 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $82 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $64 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $245 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $39 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $87 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.06 · official $183.06 (match) · 121 history records