Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb90a…6365 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 32% −$10
politics 14% $0
sports 12% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 26 +7.1% -3.1% 46% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 72 +4.4% -5.6% 36% 4% -9.4%
all 75 +2.9% -6.9% 37% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -15.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -24.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -31.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage526d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 82¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 +$4 +13%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $122 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $116 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $16 −$4 -23%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $11 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $39 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $39 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $47 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $44 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.10 · official $43.73 · 308 history records