Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb909…c20b sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,277 (-9%) realized −$3,277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,482per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$378est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$4,649
other 27% +$1,674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 42% -17.1%
≤30d 24 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 42% -17.1%
≤90d 24 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 42% -17.1%
all 24 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 42% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 42% -25.1%
15% -38.6% 33% -32.3%
20% -44.7% 33% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,143) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,476 vs −$1,267 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$378
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,482
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $918 +$1,134 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,253 +$418 +33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$115 -56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,230 −$872 -71%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $565 −$558 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,416 −$2,383 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,836 +$3,732 +203%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,666 −$2,617 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,137 −$1,350 -63%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,636 +$1,055 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,666 +$402 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,143 +$2,136 +100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,254 +$3,415 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,981 −$4,928 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,989 −$1,958 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,353 +$1,528 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 +$314 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,151 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $918 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $89 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $358 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $565 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $507 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,568 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,909 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $815 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $859 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $788 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 18¢ $214 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 18¢ $573 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1,121 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1,016 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $507 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,015 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $2,691 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,068 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $1,636 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records