Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb908…d807 weather 837 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,067 (+0%) realized +$1,076 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%811W / 24L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$93
14 days−$1,392
30 days−$952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$1,075
sports 8% +$1,693
crypto 7% +$231
other 4% +$102
culture 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 377 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 672 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 1% -9.9%
all 835 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$156 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$1,870
Realized+$1,076
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses811 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)835 / 837
History coverage242d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 835 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $879 $869 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,363 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,668 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$45 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3,182 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,598 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $731 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,999 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $994 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $795 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1,360 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $331 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $866 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $893 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $627 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $912 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $414 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on June 9 Jun 09 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $619 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $168 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $531 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $136 +$19 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $760 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7? Jun 07 $372 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $372 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $668 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $61 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,668 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,277 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $455 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $49 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,449 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $215 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $194 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,994 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $731 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $41 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $227 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $96 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $994 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $113 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,869.98 · official $1,869.09 (match) · 2126 history records