Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb907…539a other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$214 (-14%) realized −$200 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$191
14 days−$326
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$236
sports 17% −$115
crypto 3% −$50
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.6% -41.7% 17% 17% -37.1%
≤30d 40 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 15% -38.4%
≤90d 40 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 15% -38.4%
all 40 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 15% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 15% -38.4%
10% -41.9% 15% -44.3%
15% -47.5% 15% -49.6%
20% -52.7% 15% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$26 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage310d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 60¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$48 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$38 +184%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $71 −$20 -28%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $21 +$25 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $21 +$186 +904%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 +$53 +259%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $41 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $61 −$9 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 51m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 36h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 10d
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10d
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.77 · official $95.77 (match) · 71 history records