Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb906…45e5 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$304 (+8%) realized +$299 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$164
world 21% +$212
crypto 19% +$28
other 17% −$24
tech 7% −$76
finance 3% +$34
economics 1% −$3
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% +3.8%
≤30d 5 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% +3.8%
≤90d 15 -18.7% -26.4% 53% 53% -24.4%
all 33 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 48% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% -1.6%
10% -16.1% 30% -11.0%
15% -24.2% 21% -19.6%
20% -31.6% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$40 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage586d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $175 $180 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $133 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $87 +$48 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $101 −$55 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 22 $206 −$85 -41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $42 +$27 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $102 +$34 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Apr 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 08 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September? Sep 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Sep 24 $80 +$4 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Sep 24 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 24 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? Sep 12 $186 +$5 +2%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 12 $100 −$7 -7%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Sep 11 $100 −$3 -3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 19 $442 +$144 +32%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $179 +$262 +146%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? May 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month? May 14 $9 +$8 +92%
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? Dec 13 $110 +$52 +47%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 25 $44 +$94 +215%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 24 $28 −$3 -11%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $161 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $133 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $87 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $46 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 33d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 45¢ $121 33d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 74¢ $206 56d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 98¢ $136 56d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $42 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 73¢ $102 71d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $26 71d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 71d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 259d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 271d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 272d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 37¢ $100 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.81 · official $179.81 (match) · 100 history records