Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb905…088c other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-10%) realized −$231 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$77
sports 9% −$5
crypto 9% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤90d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -20.7%
all 10 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 50% -20.7%
10% -12.2% 50% -28.3%
15% -20.7% 40% -35.3%
20% -28.5% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$135 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $221 $216 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $176 +$51 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 +$64 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 +$45 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$200 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $733 −$455 -62%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $193 −$10 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 −$4 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $140 −$7 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$138 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $226 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $176 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $112 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $67 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $278 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $733 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $183 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $104 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $133 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $108 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $193 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.45 · official $216.45 (match) · 22 history records