Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb903…270d other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$183 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$4,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$38
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.8% -36.5% 40% 30% -28.1%
≤30d 10 -29.8% -36.5% 40% 30% -28.1%
≤90d 10 -29.8% -36.5% 40% 30% -28.1%
all 10 -29.8% -36.5% 40% 30% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 30% -28.1%
10% -42.6% 30% -35.0%
15% -48.1% 20% -41.3%
20% -53.2% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4,873
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $982 $1,204 +$223 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,037 $845 −$192 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $525 $776 +$251 (+48%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $650 $766 +$116 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $617 $399 −$218 (-35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $282 $306 +$23 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $249 $295 +$45 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $172 $110 −$62 (-36%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $39 −$3 -6%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $139 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $114 −$15 -13%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $79 +$34 +43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $37 4m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 11m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 12m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 13m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $75 17m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $71 17m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $36 19m
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 58¢ $110 19m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $7 38m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 39m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $6 43m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 44m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $2 45m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $31 46m
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 59¢ $30 46m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $132 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $69 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 66¢ $55 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 69¢ $79 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $78 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,872.62 · official $4,872.65 (match) · 96 history records