Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb902…31e2 world 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$430 (-3%) realized −$405 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate35%59W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$253
14 days−$279
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$196
world 30% +$90
politics 19% −$35
tech 12% −$97
economics 2% −$13
crypto 2% +$7
sports 1% −$2
finance 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.1% -17.7% 5% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 78 -5.6% -14.6% 15% 5% -12.3%
≤90d 112 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 11% -10.6%
all 170 +1.3% -8.3% 35% 18% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 18% -10.9%
10% -17.1% 14% -19.5%
15% -25.1% 11% -27.3%
20% -32.5% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$405
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses59 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)170 / 178
History coverage599d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? No 61¢ 42¢ $61 $42 −$18 (-30%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? No 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? Yes 36¢ 41¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 33¢ 37¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? No 64¢ 63¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? No 27¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Congress override any veto in 2026? Jun 26 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 26 $78 −$2 -3%
SlingshotDAO FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 26 $117 −$17 -15%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $439 −$4 -1%
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled Jun 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $626 −$49 -8%
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026? Jun 26 $114 −$14 -12%
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $63 −$10 -15%
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid Jun 25 $1 $0 -42%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Jun 25 $149 −$14 -9%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Jun 25 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? Jun 25 $210 −$10 -5%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Jun 25 $77 −$2 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Jun 25 $126 −$26 -21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 24 $222 −$9 -4%
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? Jun 24 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -22%
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 23 $48 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 23 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $88 −$3 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 22 $113 −$12 -11%
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Jun 22 $236 −$48 -20%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $195 +$11 +6%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 22 $2 $0 -24%
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 22 $75 −$4 -5%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? Jun 22 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $106 −$7 -7%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Jun 22 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 22 $80 −$2 -3%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 22 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -52%
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 22 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $204 −$4 -2%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $192 +$1 +0%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 19 $107 −$7 -7%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $99 −$3 -3%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Jun 16 $109 −$9 -8%
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 15 $102 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $74 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY No 23¢ $0 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $60 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 6h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $64 7h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 7h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 7h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 8h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 72¢ $7 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 64¢ $6 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 64¢ $0 9h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $20 9h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $66 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 10h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $12 10h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 70¢ $35 11h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 70¢ $35 11h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 11h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 11h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 73¢ $36 11h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.44 · official $51.65 (match) · 1425 history records