Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb901…9fc4 weather 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32,244 (+24%) realized +$32,244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate98%330W / 8L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day104.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$8,733
crypto 4% +$4,465
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +19.9% +8.5% 97% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 317 +13.1% +2.3% 98% 17% -0.4%
≤90d 338 +11.8% +1.2% 98% 17% -0.8%
all 338 +11.8% +1.2% 98% 17% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 17% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -10.3%
15% -17.4% 5% -18.9%
20% -25.5% 4% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$64 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×26.58 per $1 lost it wins $26.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32,244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses330 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 337
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$406
Trades / day104.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 17? Jun 20 $44 −$48 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $302 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $305 +$29 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $171 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $133 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $156 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $865 +$267 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $412 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $956 +$202 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $371 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $397 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $336 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $724 +$37 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $227 +$28 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $534 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $490 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $311 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $242 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $118 +$429 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $267 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $429 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $128 +$38 +30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $160 +$4 +3%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $99 −$29 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $322 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $137 +$19 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $135 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,264 +$45 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $312 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $388 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $172 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$54 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $216 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $289 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $198 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $104 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $105 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records