Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb900…4d10 other 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$19
other 27% −$30
sports 18% −$17
crypto 8% −$8
economics 7% −$4
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$5
finance 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 70 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 149 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 165 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $36 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $60 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $267 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $140 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $236 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $124 −$5 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $576 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $61 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $104 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $754 −$3 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $105 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $198 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 17h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $50 18h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 31h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 32h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 46h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 46h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $37 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $59 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $60 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 698 history records