Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8fe…ce76 world 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$83,869 (+6%) realized +$93,504 · open −$9,635
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%180W / 85L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$5,210per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50,995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$686
14 days−$634
30 days+$1,874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$80,171
politics 16% −$9,012
other 10% +$2,432
crypto 1% +$21
finance 0% −$4,186
tech 0% −$12
sports 0% +$3
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 71 -24.9% -32.1% 45% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 215 -5.3% -14.3% 65% 10% -5.3%
all 265 +4.0% -5.9% 68% 12% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 12% -4.1%
10% -14.9% 11% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 10% -21.7%
20% -30.7% 8% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$5,221) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$545 vs −$239 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.13 per $1 lost it wins $5.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$50,995
Realized+$93,504
Unrealized−$9,635
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses180 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)265 / 283
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$5,210
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 50¢ 98¢ $10,000 $19,570 +$9,570 (+96%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $15,121 $15,678 +$557 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $4,384 $4,400 +$16 (+0%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,693 $2,711 +$19 (+1%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,520 $2,547 +$26 (+1%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,671 $1,672 +$1 (+0%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $1,599 $1,586 −$13 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,412 $1,410 −$2 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $522 $521 −$1 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 50¢ 2¢ $10,000 $428 −$9,572 (-96%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $211 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $125 $77 −$48 (-38%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $437 $59 −$377 (-86%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $94 $36 −$57 (-61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $38 $28 −$9 (-25%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $125 $9 −$116 (-93%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $1,244 +$20 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $500 +$504 +101%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $4,514 +$77 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $500 −$135 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $22,001 +$1,362 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $6,694 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $957 +$1 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $750 −$741 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $95 +$305 +321%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $349 −$349 -100%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 15 $613 +$8 +1%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $920 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $489 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $1,113 +$20 +2%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $615 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $1,636 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $252 −$108 -43%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $506 −$506 -100%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $3,135 +$181 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? Jun 10 $1,483 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $3,719 −$14 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $185 +$119 +64%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 10 $4,163 +$371 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $9,232 −$846 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $14,106 −$357 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $518 −$116 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 08 $515 −$89 -17%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $30,981 +$59 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $594 +$20 +3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $170 +$7 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $119 +$121 +102%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $250 −$247 -99%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $253 −$253 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $740 −$51 -7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $152 −$152 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 02 $1,622 +$23 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 18 2026? May 30 $295 −$57 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? May 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026? May 30 $103 −$102 -99%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2,984 40m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $60 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $522 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $314 1h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 100¢ $211 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,271 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $696 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $94 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $480 3h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $1,377 3h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 100¢ $261 2d
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 100¢ $1,003 2d
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $258 2d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $125 3d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 100¢ $179 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $83 3d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,994.94 · official $50,997.79 (match) · 3500 history records