Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8fd…62f1 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$395 (-12%) realized −$395 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$170
14 days−$222
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$420
finance 25% +$21
other 18% +$25
politics 5% +$61
tech 3% +$8
crypto 3% −$10
world 2% −$59
culture 1% +$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 42% 42% -35.8%
≤30d 32 -20.4% -28.0% 47% 47% -28.5%
≤90d 53 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -21.5%
all 73 -24.0% -31.2% 42% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 36% -20.6%
10% -37.8% 29% -28.2%
15% -43.8% 25% -35.1%
20% -49.3% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 42
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage373d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$13 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $29 +$30 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$11 +65%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 −$26 -53%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$29 +144%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 +$20 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$28 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$22 +74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 +$6 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 +$27 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$15 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $36 −$36 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$29 +98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $49 +$8 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $59 −$58 -99%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 +$29 +95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 +$30 +62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 18 $101 −$87 -85%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5) May 12 $41 −$41 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $60 −$59 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $102 +$150 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $135 +$15 +11%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 29 $103 −$7 -7%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $20 +$91 +443%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 28 $169 +$61 +36%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Blockx Apr 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $20 51m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 52m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $31 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 81¢ $59 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $29 34h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up $6 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $40 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $28 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $61 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $50 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $49 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $29 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria $1 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $52 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $20.88 · 129 history records