Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb8fd…e8ec crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+7%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate80%43W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$98
sports 7% −$13
other 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 28% -3.7%
≤30d 54 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 28% -3.7%
≤90d 54 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 28% -3.7%
all 54 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 28% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 28% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 20% -12.9%
15% -25.2% 13% -21.4%
20% -32.6% 7% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses43 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $85 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $9 −$1 -8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $9 $0 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $9 −$1 -8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $6 −$6 -93%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $6 +$3 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $11 +$4 +33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $6 +$4 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$8 +31%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $85 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $85 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records