Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8fc…88e1
weather · 374 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,618 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,474 · open −$163
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$845
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses123 / 234
Open positions17
Markets (closed)357 / 374
History coverage51d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day63.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 357 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days+$262
14 days+$366
30 days+$565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 44¢ 54¢ $406 $496 +$91 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $35 $87 +$52 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $40 $48 +$9 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $84 $40 −$45 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $26 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $96 $2 −$94 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 74¢ 1¢ $76 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $85 $1 −$85 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 15? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 9? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 8? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $171 $0 −$171 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $47 −$25 -53%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $31 +$165 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $343 +$365 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$25 +126%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $131 +$181 +138%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $88 −$63 -72%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $94 −$75 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $169 −$164 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $11 +$45 +426%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $42 −$37 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 10 $157 +$34 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $114 +$149 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $21 +$113 +549%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $124 +$48 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 +$20 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $49 −$14 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $94 +$82 +87%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $188 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $277 +$326 +117%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $57 −$56 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 09 $55 −$55 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $341 +$28 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 09 $55 −$52 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $89 −$87 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $56 −$41 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 09 $42 −$41 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $33 −$31 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 09 $24 −$23 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $120 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 09 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 09 $341 −$332 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $65 −$41 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 09 $48 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $104 +$157 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $217 +$191 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $105 +$85 +82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 +$15 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $81 +$150 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,637
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -9.0% -17.7% 38% 32% -3.7%
≤30d 155 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 35% -3.3%
≤90d 357 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 31% -16.2%
all 357 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 31% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 31% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 27% -24.2%
15% -26.6% 25% -31.5%
20% -33.8% 24% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $844.80 · official $844.83 (match) · 3500 history records