Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb8fb…28da sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$996 (-5%) realized −$995 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%76W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$89
14 days+$49
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,346
other 36% +$291
crypto 2% −$189
world 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.7% -26.5% 45% 45% -3.9%
≤30d 73 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 48% -11.2%
≤90d 154 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -14.9%
all 154 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 49% -14.9%
10% -26.3% 47% -23.0%
15% -33.5% 44% -30.5%
20% -40.0% 34% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$106 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$995
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses76 / 78
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage80d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $49 +$50 +101%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $69 +$43 +62%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $129 −$127 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $153 −$151 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $127 +$66 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $165 +$106 +64%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $99 +$108 +109%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $99 +$67 +67%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Niger vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $78 −$77 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $86 +$83 +97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 08 $129 +$64 +50%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $91 +$29 +32%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $101 −$95 -94%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $18 −$17 -90%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $53 +$15 +29%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $101 +$42 +41%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $78 −$77 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $211 −$1 -0%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $66 +$30 +46%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $56 +$82 +146%
Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $101 +$71 +70%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $42 −$41 -98%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$92 +180%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $28 −$28 -97%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $44 +$43 +97%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 +$38 +38%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $61 +$42 +68%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $158 −$156 -99%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $101 +$31 +31%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $39 +$44 +114%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $54 +$38 +70%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $62 +$34 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $74 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $62 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $29 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $69 14h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $129 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $89 21h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $153 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $193 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $127 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $271 33h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $206 33h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $200 33h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $99 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $165 34h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 50¢ $102 34h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $165 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $99 35h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 36h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $39 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.90 · official $71.90 (match) · 298 history records