Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8f9…123d sports 276 markets active 7h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,171 (+4%) realized +$4,171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%181W / 95L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1,160est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$133
14 days−$236
30 days+$3,246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,576
world 22% +$392
finance 10% +$641
tech 2% +$19
other 1% −$176
crypto 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.1% -9.5% 63% 47% -12.2%
≤30d 92 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 43% -3.0%
≤90d 276 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 42% -6.7%
all 276 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 42% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 42% -6.7%
10% -17.8% 29% -15.6%
15% -25.7% 21% -23.8%
20% -33.0% 12% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$49 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses181 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,160
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 276
History coverage59d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $190 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $157 +$88 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$84 -66%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$56 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $217 −$123 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$9 +35%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $241 +$7 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $217 −$108 -50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $231 +$42 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$11 -42%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$3 +267%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $271 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $271 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +91%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $241 +$17 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$4 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$60 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $121 +$11 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$5 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$11 +37%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$1 +42%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $2 +$3 +165%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $206 7h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 92¢ $190 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $122 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $73 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $39 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 967 history records