Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8f6…4f7f sports 1145 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,592 (+8%) realized +$2,649 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%556W / 528L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days−$17
14 days−$1,575
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$733
other 47% +$844
politics 1% +$105
culture 1% +$7
world 0% −$90
weather 0% +$51
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -16.3% -24.3% 62% 41% -10.3%
≤30d 296 -11.5% -20.0% 47% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 1084 +9.8% -0.7% 51% 45% -4.0%
all 1084 +9.8% -0.7% 51% 45% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 45% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 39% -13.2%
15% -18.9% 32% -21.6%
20% -26.8% 25% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,679
Realized+$2,649
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses556 / 528
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions63
Markets (closed)1084 / 1145
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 1084 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 98¢ $276 $309 +$33 (+12%)
Will the match end in a draw? No 87¢ 94¢ $279 $302 +$23 (+8%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 96¢ 97¢ $289 $293 +$5 (+2%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $266 $273 +$7 (+2%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 68¢ 68¢ $256 $252 −$3 (-1%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $236 $229 −$8 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 85¢ $178 $197 +$20 (+11%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 63¢ 59¢ $207 $195 −$12 (-6%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $184 $191 +$7 (+4%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 99¢ $161 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $118 $122 +$4 (+4%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 94¢ 97¢ $91 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 38¢ 62¢ $46 $74 +$28 (+60%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 48¢ $53 $68 +$15 (+27%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 46¢ $45 $56 +$11 (+23%)
Will Bart Verbruggen win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 62¢ $74 $53 −$20 (-27%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 99¢ $17 $50 +$34 (+202%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-11%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 92¢ 93¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $240 +$52 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $52 +$19 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $12 −$4 -28%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $39 +$9 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $18 +$4 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $78 +$33 +42%
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 20 $38 +$19 +51%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 20 $59 +$59 +99%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $32 +$28 +87%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $119 +$7 +6%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $35 +$22 +64%
Set 1 Winner: Lajal vs Blanchet Jun 16 $51 −$11 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Zhang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $12 −$5 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $283 −$283 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $121 +$35 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $58 +$21 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $182 +$8 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $98 +$11 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler Jun 13 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Blues win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $69 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $109 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 96¢ $111 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 27¢ $4 7h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 67¢ $49 7h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 1¢ $2 7h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 2¢ $1 7h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 4¢ $3 7h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 77¢ $7 7h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $1 9h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $19 9h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $3 9h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 84¢ $25 10h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY No 72¢ $9 10h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY No 73¢ $81 10h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 81¢ $18 11h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY No 73¢ $116 11h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 78¢ $11 11h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 78¢ $8 11h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 78¢ $4 11h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 43¢ $4 11h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 62¢ $51 11h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 28¢ $6 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $1 25h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $1 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $21 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 54¢ $12 31h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 31h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 31h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,678.56 · official $3,678.95 (match) · 3500 history records