Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8f2…7076 crypto 835 markets active 1d ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,381 (+8%) realized +$1,381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%413W / 422L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,394
crypto 12% +$3
other 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +67.9% +51.9% 80% 80% -28.0%
≤30d 15 +67.9% +51.9% 80% 80% -28.0%
≤90d 411 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 49% -14.2%
all 835 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 49% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 49% -1.9%
10% -18.7% 49% -11.3%
15% -26.6% 48% -19.9%
20% -33.8% 48% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses413 / 422
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)835 / 835
History coverage242d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 835 Trades
no open positions (409 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $39 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records